Jan. 4 2011 - 9:21 am | 6,627 views | 0 recommendations | 5 comments By GADY EPSTEIN
The future belongs to billionaire Jack Ma's Taobao.
Predicting the Chinese economy for just the next year is for chumps. Credit Suisse has taken an ambitious shot at what China will look like in 2015, in a 150-page report, and their call is that the fastest-growing business sector will be — surprise, surprise — e-commerce, led by the dominant online marketplace Taobao of Alibaba Group. Other big winners: life insurance and wealth management, which the report says will both more than triple in business by 2015, with health care not far behind — the growth in all of which will be fueled by the have-mores of Chinese society. That seems spot on to me, in line with what I’ve written before about why the hidden wealth in Chinese society is good for Goldman Sachs, based on another worthwhile Credit Suisse report. But everyday consumer products will fare well too as both urban and rural wages and consumption will climb, with annual double-digit percentage sales growth projected for footwear, beer, wine, liquor, milk, diapers, tea, juice and bottled water.
The general trends outlined in the latest report, authored by Credit Suisse analysts Vincent Chan and Peggy Chan and drawing on the work of many, are very bullish on Chinese consumer and economic activity overall, with GDP growth continuing at 9% a year on average. Their vision of China in 2015 is of a more consumer-driven economy, with wages increasing a very strong 139%. The trade surplus will be smaller, government investment in the economy will remain strong, and the RMB will appreciate to 5.3 to the dollar.
You may be thinking, with inflation, debt and overcapacity all fueling talk of a bubble about to burst, is this really the likeliest outcome for China in 2015? By definition, it
probably is, because it naturally incorporates trend-line thinking into its projections. That
is the inherent problem with projections, of course — trends do not account for crises and shocks, and there is some percentage chance of real trouble in the years ahead.
That big caveat aside, the report somewhat persuasively puts the Chinese economy in context by comparing market penetration in various sectors with the history of U.S.
economic development. The report says, for example, that China is only at the equivalent of 1917 America when it comes to cars — a hard-to-grasp and rather frightening prospect, considering the already off-the-charts (in technical terms, “crazy bad”) pollution in
Beijing and other cities. Even in 2015, with passenger car sales projected at 23.8 million per year — twice the 2010 U.S. market — Chinese market penetration would still be only 11%, compared to 83% in the U.S. at the end of 2009. “Hence,” the report notes, “there is still plenty of room for China’s car population to grow and expand.”
That theme runs through many other sectors, including airlines, which may surprise some given China’s massive buildout of high-speed rail. Again, China was only at 1976 U.S. air passenger traffic levels in 2009 (and decades further back as a percentage of the population), and Credit Suisse projects China to reach 1986-1987 U.S. levels, or 432 million people, by 2015.
But none of those growth stories compares to the boom in the e-commerce market, projected to more than quadruple to $311 billion by 2015, possibly larger than the
comparable U.S. market by then. The lion’s share of those transactions will continue to take place on Taobao, the company that slew eBay in China and which remains for now a privately held part of billionaire Jack Ma’s Alibaba Group — Taobao’s IPO would make the recent white-hot listings of Youku.com and E-Commerce China Dangdang look undersubscribed. Publicly listed Tencent, the portal which boasts the most registered online users and has the largest market cap among Chinese Internet companies, will also benefit, and is expected to be worth $60 billion by 2015, 50% more than it is worth now. Search giant Baidu will profit, too, though less from e-commerce directly than from
advertising, an indirect benefit that the report says factors into the company’s lofty stock price.
There is a lot more to this report, including an analysis of China’s property sector (more of a mixed bag), and of demand for steel, copper and coal (all will continue to be strong, though not at the eye-popping growth rates of recent years). You can read or browse through the report here. Update: I have removed the link to the report at the request of Credit Suisse, which typically limits distribution of its full research notes and intended to do so in this case. To approximate the reading experience, you can simply re-read this post about 50 times.
电子商务是2015年中国市场大赢家
2011-1-6 12:58:02 来源:《参考消息》 阅读:
601 【大 中 小】
【美国《福布斯》双周刊网站1月4日报道】题:中国2015
年的最大赢家是谁?电子商务
预测中国明年的经济情况是很愚蠢的。瑞士信贷银行却决心在一份长达150页的报告中预测中国2015年走势,并认为增速最快的商业部门将是电子商务,在线交易网站将处于领导地位,这令人深感意外。
报告称人寿保险和财富管理是另两个大赢家:这两个领域的业绩都将于2015年增加两倍。医疗紧随其后,中国富人增多推动这些领域的增长。
这份报告中概述的大趋势非常看好中国消费者及总体经济活动,国内生产总值将继续以9%的年平均速度增长；中国经济在2015年将更多地以消费者带动,工资水平将比现在激增139%；贸易顺差将有所减小；政府对经济的投资将依旧强劲。
你也许会想,在通胀、债务及生产能力过剩引发有关泡沫即将破灭的讨论之时,这真的有可能是中国2015年的前景么?事实上,这确实有可能,因为这已经包含了趋势线分析。当然,预测的固有问题是无法虑及危机和冲击,未来几年仍有可能出现真正的麻烦。
暂且不谈警告,该报告在某种程度上令人信服地将中国经济不同部门的市场渗透率同美国经济发展史进行了比较。举例而言,该报告称, 中国的家庭汽车普及率仅相当于美国1917年的水平,考虑到北京及其他城市的污染业已十分严重,这将是相当可怕的前景。到2015年,中国乘用车销量预计将达2380万辆,这虽然是美国2010年销量的2倍,但中国的市场渗透率仍将只有11%,而美国2009年的市场渗透率为83%。该报告指出:“因此, 仍有足够的空间供中国的汽车数量增长及扩大。”
这一预测适用于航空等其他部门,这可能会令一些人感到意外,因为中国正大举兴建高铁。另一项比较是,中国2009年的空中交通仅是美国1976年的水平,瑞士信贷银行预测中国将在2015年达到美国1986年至1987年的水平,即年空中旅客达4.32亿人次。
但这些增长都无法和电子商务媲美,该报告预计中国这一市场到2015年将比现在增加3倍,至3110亿美元,有可能超过那时的美国市场。
Brace Yourself: Currency War Is the Next Crisis
Illustration by Leah Hayes for Newsweek
At their November meeting inSeoul, the leaders of the G20 nations once again patted themselves on the back for their massive efforts to stabilize the global economy since the 2007–08 financial panic. The rest of the world might be forgiven for not sharing their enthusiasm.
Leaders might swear in public to work together, but at home they continue to wall off their own economies against immediate dangers—with no concern for the consequences next door. The U.S. Federal Reserve is flooding the still-struggling U.S. economy with dollars, many of which end up chasing more promising returns in emerging nations, threatening to overvalue their currencies, create asset bubbles, and price their goods out of world markets. Beijing shows no signs of letting the yuan appreciate significantly, a virtual
guarantee that Chinese exports will keep gaining market share all over the world. Smaller nations brace for the fallout, which includes declining exports and pressure on companies and jobs. Recently Alan Bollard, Reserve Bank governor of New Zealand, put it succinctly: ―When elephants make love, or war, the grass gets crushed, and that’s the risk smaller economies face in this situation.‖
So it was that Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega—alarmed as the Brazilian real rose to near record highs against the greenback—dubbed this the era of currency wars: each nation tries to keep its own economy going, in part by managing the exchange rate and intervening in the markets to keep a step ahead of its neighbors. Already, scores of nations are taking aggressive measures to try to stanch the flood of incoming dollars and shore up faltering industries. Central banks everywhere are moving beyond merely buying up excess dollars to outright intervention in the exchange markets to stop their currencies from spiking against the dollar. Taiwan and Thailand recently imposed capital controls on foreign investments in their bond markets. Brazil tripled its tax on international financial capital from 2 to 6 percent. Worryingly, blaming the foreigner is back in fashion. One way or another, everyone ends up a combatant in the currency wars.
But it could get worse. Without a truce, South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan recently warned, a full-blown trade war could break out, as each country seeks to compensate the damage that a rising currency causes at home by hurling up trade barriers against others believed to be resorting to so-called monetary dumping.
So much for the symphony of global consensus. The expected new world of cooperation has now turned into a nightmare of accusations of exchange-rate manipulation, beggar-thy-neighbor policies, and currency wars.
What can be done? It is clearly impossible for all countries to devalue their exchange rates at the same time. The answer here is the same one that the G20 has already reached but not yet acted upon. Some international cooperation on exchange rates is necessary, but that alone will not do the job. At the national level—especially in the mature
economies—there must be more emphasis on the long-term reduction of deficits as well as structural reforms and investments (such as in education, innovation, and infrastructure) that raise productivity and growth. But that is unlikely to happen soon in any broad and coordinated way, so the danger is in fact that currency war escalates into trade restrictions and more extreme controls of capital flows. Confidence would remain low, and a vicious circle of bad policies could ensue. In this context a relapse of the global crisis cannot be ruled out. In all likelihood it would be worse than the original version.
Brace Yourself: Currency War Is the Next Crisis
(Page 2 of 2)
Illustration by Leah Hayes for NewsweekUnfortunately, this high-anxiety momentseems like the new normal in international relations. The sobering fact is thatin recent years the most important attempts to forge global cooperation have ended in failure. The Doha Round of trade negotiations has languished inconclusively for years, the Copenhagen discussions on climate change ended with anodyne statements, and the many attempts to overhaul the regulations of the international financial system have fared little better. In hindsight, even the measures undertaken at the start of the global financial crisis were not so much a show of cooperation as it was each individual country pursuing its own domestic objectives. It just so happened that, at least for a while, everyone was pursuing the same objective: avoiding a deep recession.
This means that for now we are left with more of the same: each country will, for the most part, continue to fend for itself. If the history of crises in the emerging world tells us anything, it is that to succeed in dealing with a crisis it is necessary to blend short-term firefighting—of which nations have now done plenty—with reforms that address key
long-term problems. This means the advanced economies must now solve their structural problems, boost productivity, and reform their economies to promote growth, but above all tackle unsustainable government deficits and debts. If and when this is done, things will turn out all right. If not, watch out—then the currency wars will be the least of our troubles.
【美国《新闻周刊》1月1日一期文章】题:做好准备:下一场危机是货币战争(作者巴西央行前行长阿米尼奥·弗拉加)
2010年11月,20国集团领导人在首尔峰会上再一次赞扬了他们自2007—2008年金融危机以来稳定全球经济的大规模行动。
各国领导人可能会在公开场合发誓共同努力,但在国内,他们继续帮助本国经济避免目前的危险,且不关心对邻国造成的影响。美国联邦储备委员会正向仍苦苦挣扎的美国经济注入大量美元,其中很大一部分最终将涌入新兴国家寻求更高回报,使新兴国家面临货币升值压力、制造资产泡沫、推高商品价格进而失去世界市场。北京没有表现出让人民币明显升值的迹象,这实际上确保了中国的出口商品将继续在世界各地获得市场份额。较小的国家做好准备,应对由此带来的影响,包括出口下降,公司和就业面临压力。
所以,由于对雷亚尔与美元的比价接近创纪录的高点感到担心,巴西财长称这是一个货币战争的时代——每个国家都试图保持本国经济的增长,在一定程度上就是通过比邻国提前一步操纵汇率、干预市场。无论如何,最终每个国家都会参与这场货币战。
南非财长普拉温·戈尔丹最近警告说,如果不休战,一场全面的贸易战可能爆发,因为每个国家都试图对据信诉诸所谓的货币倾销的其他国家树立贸易壁垒,以此弥补货币升值对本国造成的损失。
人们期待的合作的新世界已经变成一场指责汇率操纵、损人利己政策和货币战的梦魇。
该怎么办?所有国家同时降低汇率显然是不可能的。在汇率方面必须开展国际合作,但仅仅这一点还不够。在国家层面上——尤其是成熟经济体——必须进一步重视赤字的长期削减以及能提高生产率和增长速度的结构性改革和投资(例如教育、创新和基础设施方面的投资)。但这不大可能以全面、协调的方式很快发生,所以实际上危险在于货币战争升级为贸易限制和对资本流动更加极端的控制。信心将继续低迷,接下来可能出现糟糕政策的恶性循环。在这种情况下,不排除全球危机故态复萌的可能性。情况很可能比原来还糟糕。
在很大程度上,每个国家都将继续只注重自己的利益。如果新兴世界的危机能带给我们启示的话,那就是,要成功应对危机,必须把短期灭火与解决长期问题的改革结合起来。这意味着发达经济体必须解决结构性问题、提高生产率、改革经济以促进增长,但是最重要的是解决不可持续的政府赤字和债务。如果能做到这一点,情况就会好转；如果做不到,那么要当心——货币战争将是我们面临的最小的问题。
Economic forecasters see growth in 2011, but risk factors remain for recovery As 2011 begins, the United States is poised for its strongest year of economic growth since the recession began three years ago.
Plenty of risks that could counteract the feat remain, and it could verify eld of solidified ontogeny to intend the United States discover of its unfathomable scheme hole. Nonetheless, signposts for the frugalness are mostly pointing up, as illustrated by a measure of ontogeny that expedited in the test months of 2010. Among the reasons for optimism: A gesture of polity efforts to increase ontogeny is play to verify effect, including a section ordered revilement first Jan. 1 and the suspended benefits of a large agent Reserve land declared Nov. 3. dweller consumers hit prefabricated advancement stipendiary downbound their debts and crescendo savings. And the hit mart has risen steadily in instance months, with the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock finger up most 13 proportionality for 2010 artefact into the test trading period of the year, lifting businesses’ certainty and consumers’ wealth.
The stylish readings on the frugalness weekday matching the rosier outlook: The 388,000 grouping who filed newborn claims for unemployment shelter benefits terminal hebdomad were the fewest since the season of 2008, beneath the signaling 400,000 boundary that to whatever economists is the distinction between a flourishing and unwholesome fag market. (Analysts caution, though, that the accumulation crapper be volatile, especially around holidays.)
Also Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said there were 3.5
proportionality more pending bag income in November, such meliorate than due and a clew that modify prices are actuation buyers into the structure market.
More generally, a feat that seemed unsettled and halting a assemblage instance today appears to be imperishable and more deeply entrenched, having worn a fleecy connector early in the year. Macroeconomic Advisers, digit directive forecasting firm, estimates that the U.S. frugalness module acquire 4.4 proportionality in 2011. Moody’s Analytics expects 3.9 proportionality growth. nihilist Sachs envisions 3.4 proportionality growth.
Any of those drawing would equal an transformation over 2010. Although authorised polity drawing are not out, large husbandly creation looks to hit grown 2.7 proportionality over the instance year, Moody’s estimates. ‘Sturdier,’ but ease risks
“The frugalness is on sturdier legs now,” said parliamentarian Dye, grownup economist at PNC Financial Services Group. “We’re making a transformation to a broader, more imperishable recovery.”
He and added forecasters pass that there are venture factors in this mostly sunny prognosticate that could invoke the measure of ontogeny or modify flash added recession.
There is the current shortening by land and topical governments, which is trusty to be a nous twine for ontogeny and which could invoke into something worsened if a crisis emerges in the mart for municipal bonds. Financial troubles in aggregation could move over into U.S. markets. The toll of lubricator and added commodities could uprise backwards toward 2008 highs – when fuel soared above $4 a congius – and invoke Americans’ useable income.
And U.S. welfare rates could uprise sharply if investors retrograde establishment that long-term budget deficits module be reduced, that the FRS module do what is necessary to ready inflation from spiking, or that President Obama and congressional Republicans crapper accomplish compromises to ready the polity functioning. “You could modify up with legislature and the chair attractive in a aggregation of outcry and noisy over the incoming digit eld but not healthy to do such of anything,” said Evangelist Silvia, honcho economist at author Fargo. “And there haw be more of a significance that we aren’t effort federal outlay and taxes in visit in a artefact that would alter the inadequacy downbound in the future.” Even the forecasts of the optimists substance no scheme panacea, presented the unfathomable mess the United States is in. Growth of 3 to 4 proportionality would belike be sufficiency to alter the 9.8 proportionality Nov unemployment evaluate downbound exclusive to most 9 percent, according to a consensus of forecasters.
And the unemployment evaluate could grappling ascending push modify as the frugalness strengthens. Many Americans materialize to hit responded to the anaemic employ mart by descending discover of the fag obligate entirely, gift up hunting for work. If the equilibrium of Americans in the men chromatic backwards to its pre-recession levels, 3.6 meg more grouping would be hunting for a job. As they rejoin the fag obligate but cannot encounter jobs immediately, it would increase the unemployment rate.
Economic downturns that study business crises run to terminal individual and hit slower recoveries than more exemplary recessions. After the early-1980s recession, which was nonindulgent but not unvoluntary by business turmoil, the United States had fivesome straightforward lodging of ontogeny at an period evaluate of 7
proportionality or greater. Even scheme optimists are not expecting such a godsend in the nearby future. Less debt
At the aforementioned time, whatever of the factors that hit been field drags on the frugalness in instance eld are play to hit a modestly constructive impact. The large of these is consumers’ sloughing of debt.
Americans took on large loans during the run-up to the ceding and hit been stipendiary them downbound – and in whatever cases defaulting on them – since. They are making progress: Debt assist payments were 11.9 proportionality of useable individualized income in the ordinal quarter, according to agent Reserve data, the minimal since 1999 and downbound from 14 proportionality meet before the recession.
“Household equilibrise sheets hit reinforced significantly,” said physiologist Baumohl, honcho orbicular economist with the Economic Outlook Group. “Americans hit been de-leveraging for the instance digit years, and as a termination households are such meliorate positioned for the future.”
And the business grouping seems to be stabilizing, with banks no individual
tightening the availability of credit, according to a FRS analyse of grownup give officers. That, in turn, should stingy diminutive businesses that depend on slope loans module be meliorate healthy to modify and lease in 2011.
In particular, looser assign from banks and added lenders could effect assistance in assistance with the agent Reserve’s cheap-money policies. The Fed’s near-zero direct for short-term welfare rates and $600 1000000000 information of stick purchases today current are more probable to support the frugalness if banks embellish more hot to add that money out.
Few forecasters are expecting field transformation in the structure sector, which has been a inspire on the frugalness for quaternary straightforward years. But neither does structure materialize ordered to be a field pipage on growth.
Residential assets constituted its minimal equilibrium of coverall scheme state on achievement in the ordinal quarter, message that modify if it were to lessen a bit, it would hit lowercase effect on growth.
Moreover, structure developers are antiquity homes tardily and yet module requirement to act up their production. Housing starts were at a 555,000 period evaluate in November, roughly half the measure necessary to ready up with long-term ontogeny in the population. That is dustlike now, when there is ease an
immoderateness cater of houses from godsend years, but yet those vacant homes module be filled up and cerebration state module requirement to rise.
“Builders module yet hit to move ramping up newborn construction,” Baumohl said. “The discourse is when.”
【美国《华盛顿邮报》2010年12月30日文章】题:经济师预测2011年经济将增长,但风险因素犹存(作者尼尔·欧文)
随着2011年的到来,美国似乎蓄势待发,迎接自3年前经济开始衰退以来最强劲的经济增长年份。
尽管大量可能破坏复苏的风险因素仍然存在,但经济指标正普遍向好:多种指标显示,在2010年夏天短暂停顿后,经济增长在最后几个月加速。政府提振经济的一系列努力正开始起效,包括将从2011年1月1日起执行的减少个人所得税政策,以及美联储2010年11月初宣布的第二轮量化宽松政策。美国消费者在偿还债务和增加收入方面取得了一些进展。最近几个月的股市也稳步增长,从而提振了企业信心、增加了消费者的财富。
从更宏观的角度来看,一年前看似步履蹒跚的一场复苏,在经历2010年早些时候的温和减速后,现在看上去已经更稳定持久、更深入了。知名预测公司宏观经济咨询公司估计,美国经济将在2011年增长4.4%；穆迪分析公司预计经济增速将达3.9%；美国环球通视有限公司预测的数字是3%。
上述所有数字都超过了2010年的经济增速。穆迪分析公司估计,尽管官方数据尚未出台,但美国国内生产总值似乎同比增长了2.7%。
PNC金融服务集团资深经济师罗伯特·戴伊说:“现在的经济步伐比过去稳健了。我们正向更广泛、更持久的复苏转变。”
他和其他参与预测的经济师都承认,这一普遍乐观的预测也存在风险因素,可能会导致增长速度降低,甚至会触发另一场衰退。州政府和地方政府正紧缩财政,这注定会对经济发展构成阻力,并且可能在市政债券市场出现危机时,演变成更糟糕的事情。欧洲的财政困境可能会蔓延到美国市场。石油及其他商品的价格可能会逼近2008年的高位,从而使美国人的可支配收入缩水。
美国的利率可能会急剧升高,如果投资者认定不会发生如下事情:长期预算赤字减少；美联储采取必要措施防止利率大幅提高；奥巴马总统和共和党议员达成妥协以维持政府正常运转。
提供咨询服务的经济展望集团的首席全球经济师伯纳德·鲍莫尔说:“经济面临的最大威胁是,我们可能会看到债券投资者开始迅速抛售手中的债券,从而导致所有人都在同一时间试图出场,而债券利率会迅速提高。但最要紧的是,发生二次衰退的可能性确实比一年前降低了。”
然而,即便是鲍莫尔和其他对经济持乐观态度的经济师也没有给出万灵药,因为美国现在着实积重难返。经济预测人士达成共识,幅度在3%到4%的增长很可能只够把一度高达9.8%的失业率拉低到约9%的水平。而即便经济走强,失业率仍有可能面临上升压力。
金融危机导致的经济衰退往往比一般性的衰退持续时间更长,复苏也更缓慢。 根据美联储对资深信贷官员所做的一项调查,金融系统似乎正趋于稳定,银行不再收紧信贷。这有助于依赖银行贷款的小公司在2011年扩大业务和增加雇员。
Chinese Companies Expand to U.S. Soil and Markets
Companies from China are increasingly setting up shop in the U.S. to avoid trade barriers and to learn better ways to prosper in their fiercely competitive home market
By David J. Lynch
On a spotless factory floor, workers wearing hair nets snap together metal frames, cables, and photovoltaic cells to produce metallic-blue solar panels. This sort of work could be done just about anywhere, yet China's Suntech Power Holdings (STP) as of October has been making the panels in a 117,000-square-foot plant in the Arizona desert. The sand-colored factory, about 20 miles west of Phoenix in the town of Goodyear, brings the company closer to its American customers and into compliance with \"Buy American\" requirements in some government contracts. The strategy seems to be working: Suntech plans to double its 75-person payroll by the end of next year. For 20 years, U.S. manufacturers have decamped to China in search of cheaper labor and parts. Now Chinese companies increasingly are setting up shop in the U.S. to escape trade barriers, capitalize on the U.S. government's alternative energy push, and learn lessons that could help them in their home market. \"It's a little unusual to see it coming the other way,\" says Wei Tai Kwok, Suntech's vice-president for marketing.
Through September, Chinese companies invested $2.81 billion in U.S. projects or acquisitions, vs. $1.73 billion in all of 2009, according to Rhodium Group, an economic research firm in New York. It's no longer just state enterprises buying up natural resources to fuel China's ravenous industries. Now the Chinese are investing more broadly in \"retail, utilities, and especially new manufacturing,\" says Thilo Hanemann, Rhodium's research director.
The Chinese government encourages the westward expansion. After President Hu Jintao completes his Jan. 19 trip to Washington, he may visit a Chinese-owned company with American workers, possibly Wanxiang America (000559:CH), an Elgin, Ill., auto parts company, say two business officials involved in the planning.
With unemployment hovering near 10 percent, U.S. officials have put aside concerns about unfair Chinese competition. \"Chinese companies, thanks to government-backed loans, monopolies, and preferential treatment, are awash in cash and should be a source for investment in the U.S. economy—investment that would help maintain and create jobs in the U.S.,\" wrote Jon Huntsman, U.S. ambassador to Beijing, in a diplomatic cable on Jan. 28, disclosed recently by WikiLeaks.
The red carpet treatment marks a sharp turnaround from 2005, when a Chinese state-owned oil company's $18 billion bid for Unocal was withdrawn after some U.S. lawmakers threatened to block Chinese acquisitions of strategically valuable U.S. assets. While some deals, such as a planned $200 million Chinese investment in a Mississippi steel mill, are still triggering opposition, dozens of others are proceeding. Near Corpus Christi, Tex., state-owned Tianjin Pipe next year plans to build a $1 billion steel pipe mill that will employ 500 to 600 people and circumvent 63 percent U.S. tariffs. On Nov. 30, Pacific Century Motors, formed by an affiliate of Beijing's municipal government, acquired General Motors' (GM) Saginaw
(Mich.)-based Nexteer Automotive, which makes steering and driveline systems and employs more than 3,600 workers.
China absorbed $7 of outside investment for every $1 it sent to other countries as recently as 2005, according to the International Monetary Fund. Next year the IMF expects Chinese outward investment to exceed the incoming flow for the first time. The yuan's slow but steady rise could be a further spur, making U.S. assets more affordable to Chinese buyers. The currency, up 2.5 percent against the dollar since mid-June, remains at least 25 percent undervalued, says the nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics. \"The yuan is going to continue to rise,\" says Donald Straszheim, senior managing director for ISI Group in the investment management firm's Los Angeles office.
For Suntech, the world's largest producer of solar panels, with headquarters in Wuxi, about 85 miles west of Shanghai, a U.S. assembly line brings big savings on shipping costs and a foothold in a growing market. The company says it received a $2.1 million manufacturing tax credit through the economic stimulus package on an investment of
about $10 million and also became eligible to supply solar panels to installers that win government contracts with \"Buy American\" clauses. Camp Lejeune, a U.S. Marine Corps base in North Carolina, now has one such job out for bid.
Barry Broome, chief executive officer of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council, spent more than two years courting Suntech Chairman Shi Zhengrong, ultimately selling Shi on his vision of Phoenix as the world's solar capital. Goodyear officials chipped in three months of office space in city hall for a nominal $10 fee. The vice-mayor even baked a chocolate cake for Martin Guo, the plant's general manager. Broome now hopes to attract the company's suppliers. Trading with China isn't as controversial in Arizona as it is in Rust Belt states that have bled manufacturing jobs. \"The Tiananmen Square hurdle? You don't have that here,\" he says. More than 1,000 people, including numerous victims of Arizona's housing implosion, turned up at a recent Suntech job fair.
Resurgent Republicans may put the brakes on the Obama Administration's green energy plans, slowing sales of solar panels. Still, 29 states mandate that utilities use renewable sources, says analyst Mark Bachman of Auriga Securities in New York, which has a buy rating on Suntech. Arizona utilities, for example, must derive 15 percent of their energy output from renewable sources by 2025. \"All eyes are on the U.S. market at this moment,\" says Shi. \"We have very high expectations and we do believe the U.S. market will grow substantially.\"
Suntech is using more advanced manufacturing equipment in its Goodyear plant than in Wuxi, allowing 30 Arizonans to produce the same number of solar modules as 100 Chinese. (U.S. production costs are still about 10 percent higher.) \"If it works very well, we can integrate the same manufacturing technology in China,\" Guo says. \"This would help Suntech China make [a] manpower reduction.\" Jobs for Americans and pink slips for the Chinese—just one more turnabout in the U.S.-China relationship.
The bottom line: Chinese companies are investing in the U.S. to bypass trade barriers and take advantage of government clean energy goals.
【美国《商业周刊》1月3日一期文章】题:中国企业向美国本土及市场扩张(记者戴维·林奇)
在一尘不染的工厂车间里,头戴发套的工人们把金属框架、电缆和光伏电池组装在一起,生产出闪着金属光泽的蓝色太阳能电池板。这样的工作在任何地方都可以完成,然而截至2010年10月,中国的尚德太阳能电力有限公司一直在亚利桑那沙漠中占地11.7万平方英尺的工厂里生产这些电池板。这座外表呈黄沙色的工厂位于菲尼克斯以西20英里的古德耶尔,它使得该公司拉近了与美国客户的距离,并符合某些政府合同所列出的“购买美国货”的要求。这一策略似乎正在奏效:尚德公司计划到明年底把员工人数在现在75人的基础上增加一倍。
过去20年里,美国制造商前往中国安营扎寨,寻求廉价的劳动力和配件。如今,中国企业正越来越多地在美国开店设厂,以避开贸易壁垒,利用美国政府促进替代能源的政策,并获得有助于它们开发本国市场的经验。尚德公司负责营销的副总裁郭为泰(音)说:“企业投资呈现相反的方向,这确实有点异乎寻常。”
据纽约的经济研究机构罗迪厄姆咨询集团称,截至9月份,中国企业2010年投资于美国的项目或收购案的资金为28.1亿美元, 远高于2009年全年的17.3亿美元。现在的情况已不再是中国国有企业大量买下自然资源,为中国狼吞虎咽的工业提供原料了。罗迪厄姆咨询集团的研究主管蒂洛·哈内曼说,如今中国人正在更加广泛地对“零售业、公用事业、尤其是新型制造业”进行投资。
大菲尼克斯地区经济委员会首席执行官巴里·布鲁姆用了两年多时间设法获得尚德公司董事长施正荣的支持,最终说服施正荣接受了他把菲尼克斯发展成为世界太阳能之都的设想。古德耶尔的官员以10美元的象征性收费让该公司把市政厅用作办公场所达3个月之久,副市长甚至还烤了巧克力蛋糕欢迎工厂总经理马丁·郭(音)的到来。布鲁姆现在希望把尚德公司的供应商也吸引过来。在亚利桑那州,与中国做生意并不像在失去了大量制造业岗位的传统工业地区那样具有争议。有1000多人出现在尚德公司最近举行的招聘会上,其中包括众多因亚利桑那州住房市场崩溃而受到牵连的受害者。
在失业率高居近10%的情况下,美国官员已经把对中国不正当竞争的担忧抛在一边。这种红地毯式的待遇与2005年的情况有天壤之别,当时在一些美国议员扬言阻止中国购买具有战略价值的美国资产之后,一家中国国有石油公司撤销了出资180亿美元竞购优尼科公司的计划。
据国际货币基金组织统计,一直到2005年,中国每向别国投资1美元,就需要吸收7美元的外部投资。而该组织预计,明年中国的对外投资额将首次超过进入中国的投资额。人民币缓慢但却稳定的升值可能会造成进一步的刺激,使美国资产对中国买主来说变得更加便宜。
U.S.-China Current Account Imbalance Could Disappear
By Jeffrey Sparshott
Current account imbalances in the U.S. and China will shrink and maybe even disappear in the next few years, eliminating a threat to international economic stability, a former chairman of President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers posits in remarks set for delivery next month.
―Although natural market forces should resolve such imbalances without the need for specific government policies, the government actions in both countries have actually contributed to their persistence and prevented market forces from correcting the problem. That may be about to change,‖ Martin Feldstein, a Harvard University economics professor, said in an advance copy of remarks set for delivery at the Allied Social Science Associations annual conference.
The Commerce Department earlier this month said the U.S. current account deficit widened 3.2% to $127.2 billion in the third quarter, reflecting rising imports of consumer goods. Most of the current account balance is made up of trade in goods and services, but the broad measure of U.S. international transactions also includes transfer payments and investment income.
The U.S. deficit — and surpluses in China, Germany and other countries — has been a source of friction in international relations and a cause of concern as the U.S. only slowly emerges from a recession.
Feldstein said that while international negotiations have not resulted in any real commitments to shrink current account imbalances, progress will come as Americans save more, the federal budget deficit narrows, the dollar declines in value and China invests more domestically.
Feldstein imagines the U.S. national saving rate rising by 2% of gross domestic product and budget deficits declining to 3% of GDP from 8%, producing a combined saving rise of 7% of GDP.
―These assumptions about private and public saving may be too optimistic but they indicate that closing the U.S. current account deficit is potentially feasible,‖ he said. Meanwhile, China is directing more investment internally–spending more on health care, education and housing–as it looks to raise living standards.
―If China reduces its national saving rate from the current 45% of [gross domestic product] to 40% without a corresponding fall in investment, the result would be to shift China from having a current account surplus to a current account balance or even a small deficit,‖ he said.
【美国《华尔街日报》2010年12月29日报道】题:美中经常项目失衡有可能消失 里根政府时期的经济顾问委员会主席马丁·费尔德斯坦在准备于下月社会科学协会联合会年会上发表的讲话中说,美中经常项目失衡将会缩小,甚至可能会在未来几年中消失,这就消除了影响国际经济稳定性的威胁。
这位哈佛大学经济学教授在讲话的样稿中说:“虽然靠市场的自然力量应可以消除这种不平衡性,无需政府出台专门的政策,但两国政府的行动实际上加剧了这种不平衡的持续性,并妨碍了市场的力量进行纠正。这种情况或许即将得到改变。”
商务部2010年12月早些时候说,美国的经常项目逆差第三季度扩大了3.2%,达到1272亿美元,这反映出消费品进口的增加。
美国的逆差——以及在中国、德国和其他国家呈现的顺差——一直是在国际关系中造成摩擦和引发担忧的因素,而此刻美国正在缓慢摆脱衰退。
费尔德斯坦说,虽然国际谈判并未产生任何真正要缩减经常项目失衡的承诺,但是随着美国储蓄增加、联邦预算赤字减少、美元贬值以及中国对内投资增加,这方面的改善将取得进展。
费尔德斯坦设想,美国的国民储蓄率在国内生产总值(GDP)中所占比例将增加两个百分点,预算赤字将由GDP的8%减少到3%,从而使综合储蓄率在GDP中的比例提升7%。
他说:“这些有关私人和公共储蓄的假设或许太过乐观,但是它们反映出缩小美国的经常项目逆差是潜在可行的。”
与此同时,中国将会增加对国内的投资——增加在医疗保健、教育和住房方面的支出,因为中国想要提高生活水平。
他说:“如果中国将国民储蓄率由目前(占GDP)的45%降低到40%,而与此同时又不会相应减少投资,那么中国将会由经常项目顺差转变为经常项目平衡,甚至会出现小规模的逆差。”
Developing Nations Fight Inflation
Price Jumps, Especially on Food, Threaten Growth Engines ; A Contrast With West Inflation is spreading across the world's largest emerging nations, leaving a noisy rattle in what have been the engines of global growth in recent years.
Central banks in Brazil, Russia, India and China, the fast-growing so-called BRIC nations now responsible for nearly a fifth of global economic activity, have all raised interest rates in recent weeks, and are testing more exotic measures to stanch rising prices, especially for food: India and Russia banned exports of onions and wheat, respectively, while China has promised price controls on items such as cooking oil. View Full Image
Reuters
A farmer transports vegetables on an improvised tricycle toward a market in Kolkata Thursday. India's food inflation has picked up recently.
Brazil said Friday that its 2010 inflation rate had risen to 5.9%, its fastest rate in six years, raising the chances the nation will push its already sky-high interest rates even higher, potentially hampering growth.
To be sure, Brazil's single-digit inflation rate is a universe away from the hyperinflation it suffered in the early 1990s. And some analysts say fears of an emerging-market inflation spiral are overstated, with current inflation rates still below where they were when prices peaked before the financial crisis in 2008.
Still, the inflation trend is creating tricky policy headaches for officials from Beijing to New Delhi, including fears that rising food prices in these mostly poor nations may jeopardize social stability.
\"Inflation is one of the major risks for this year,\" says Nicholas Kwan, economist for Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.
The accelerating price gains in the developing world contrast sharply with low inflation rates in Europe and the U.S. and persistent price declines in Japan. The divergence is partly a byproduct of the stronger economic recoveries achieved by emerging nations compared with sluggish growth in the West.
Such diverging economic fortunes are complicating inflation-fighting efforts in the developing world, economists say.
Leaders in Brazil and other countries complain that the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to pump $600 billion into the economy promotes commodity inflation and asset bubbles by weakening the dollar. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday the stimulus measure wasn't adding to inflation. View Full Image
A better-than-expected recovery in the U.S. could fuel inflation by sending a jolt of demand through the global supply chain, causing economies already running at full capacity to overheat, economists say.
\"We are arriving at a juncture where policy requirements in emerging economies will be overwhelmed by advanced-economy policies,\" said Cornell University economist Eswar Shanker Prasad a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Brazil illustrates the case. The South American giant has set some of the world's highest interest rates in order to keep a lid on inflation as economic growth nears 7% and amid rising government spending to lift the poor.
The 10.75% rate has attracted a flood of speculative investment from the U.S. and Japan, where monetary policy is loose in order to spur growth.
As a result, the Brazilian real has soared more than 35% since 2009 against the U.S. dollar, making exports less competitive and making domestic manufacturers vulnerable to less expensive imports. To avoid raising rates further, Brazil is trying other measures such as restricting credit by raising bank reserve requirements.
The issue is a major test for the brand-new government of Dilma Rousseff. Though Ms. Rousseff campaigned on expanded welfare spending, she is now contemplating politically risky spending restraints to shrink deficits and cool the economy.
In developing countries, price rises, especially for food, can have a big impact. Because incomes are lower than in the developed world, food and energy make up substantial part of household spending—and most emerging-market inflation measures. Food prices globally hit an all-time high in December, according to a United Nations index.
And there are signs that the increase in food prices is not abating as some had expected, and that price increases are creeping into the broader part of some economies. China's 5.1% consumer-price inflation rate in November was driven mostly by food prices, which rose 11.7%. But the so-called core inflation rate, which excludes energy and food, rose as well, up 1.9% from a year earlier
China has introduced a raft of measures to tamp prices, including two interest-rate
increases, a slightly stronger currency, tighter bank lending, price controls, and efforts to clamp down on illegal speculation in food. Chinese officials have signaled they will continue to tighten to tame inflation.
Kong Ong, Hong Kong owner of Headquarters Industrial Ltd., which makes more than a million hats a year on the mainland for export to the U.S. and Germany, says rising prices material prices and wages are concerns. Cotton, which is 30-40% of his costs, hit record highs last year. Prevailing wages have risen and he expects them to go up again this year. And living costs are keeping migrant workers closer to home.
\"When the inflation rate is too high, workers don't want to come to the big cities because the big cities the living cost is too high,\" he says. In India, where high food prices drove inflation for much of 2010, expectations had been that a solid harvest for rice and other staples would ease the pressure. But the latest government data show the food situation hasn't been resolved and food-price inflation has jumped in India of late, reaching 18% in the week ended Dec. 25, according to figures released this week. Economists say the
Reserve Bank of India, after raising interest rates six times in 2010, will almost certainly tighten again when it meets Jan. 25 for a regular policy meeting.
India's economy is expected to grow by 8.75% in the year ending March 31, according to an International Monetary Fund report issued Thursday. But inflation is threatening to undermine the economic gains for hundreds of millions of poor and less well-off Indians.The government has scrambled to take measures to alleviate the food-price increases, for instance banning the export of onions.
What's more, officials across emerging markets are concerned that price increases may erode the hard-won credibility of central banks and lead to increased inflation expectations among locals.
Amrith Mathur, a 36-year-old software engineer buying vegetables at a wholesale market in New Delhi Friday morning, says the price rises have virtually canceled out salary increases.
\"I got a paltry increment of 5% in salary after a gap of two years this year, but thanks to the prices of essential commodities which have skyrocketed, the rise is as good as nil,\" he said. \"How can the government achieve their tall growth target of 9%-10% if the people's spending power is getting lesser and lesser by the day,\" he said.
In Russia, summer droughts sent wheat prices skyrocketing and undermined the
government's goal of keeping inflation in the 6%-7% range in 2010. Russia reported this week that consumer prices rose a faster-than-expected 1% in December from November and 8.7% over the past year, raising expectations for interest-rate increases in the coming months.
Other large emerging economies also have seen prices rise faster than expected in recent months. Peru surprised with a rate increase this week, and Mexico reported
faster-than-expected inflation of 4.4%. Thailand is expected to raise interest rates next week. South Korea has also said it will unveil a package of policies to tackle rising prices next week.
Indonesia's consumer-inflation rate hit 7% in December, a 20-month high and the fourth time in six months prices outpaced the central bank's 4%-6% target. The central bank has yet to raise interest rates since the recovery began in 2009, figuring higher rates will have little effect on food prices.
【美国《华尔街日报》网站1月10日文章】题:发展中国家打响通胀阻击战
通货膨胀正在全世界最大的几个新兴市场国家中蔓延,使得这些自金融危机结束以来一直都是全球经济增长引擎的国家内出现了躁动和不安。
经济发展迅速的“金砖四国”巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国目前在全球经济活动总量中占据着近五分之一的比例,这四个国家的央行最近几周纷纷提高了利率,并且还在尝试着采取更多引人关注的举措来平抑不断上涨的物价,尤其是食品价格的上涨:印度和俄罗斯分别对洋葱和小麦实施了出口禁令,中国则承诺对食用油等物品实行价格控制。
渣打银行驻香港的经济学家关家明说,通胀是今年的重大风险之一。
发展中国家物价加速上涨的情况与欧美的低通胀率以及日本持续的物价下跌形成了鲜明反差。造成这种差异的部分原因是新兴市场国家实现了强劲的经济复苏,相比之下西方国家的经济增长则是步履缓慢。
经济学家们说,如此迥异的经济命运令发展中国家抑制通胀的努力变得复杂起来。美国经济的复苏状况好于预期将在全球供应链中增加些许需求,从而助长通胀,使得那些已经全速前进的经济体出现过热的情况。
为在经济增速接近7%之际遏制通货膨胀,巴西利率之高已属世界前列。为避免进一步加息,巴西正在试验其他措施,比如提高银行法定准备金率,从而限制信贷数量。
中国已推出一系列措施来控制物价,包括两次加息、人民币小幅升值、收紧银行贷款、实施物价管制,以及打击食品行业非法投机等。
印度2010年通货膨胀有很大一部分是食品价格带动的,人们曾预计稻米和其他粮食的好收成将缓解通胀压力。但政府数据表明,最近印度食品价格的涨幅已经大幅扩大。经济学家说,印度央行在2010年六次加息后,1月25日开会时几乎肯定会再次紧缩。
在俄罗斯,夏季的干旱导致小麦价格疯涨,政府将2010年通胀率控制在6%到7%的目标也打了折扣。俄罗斯上周报告说,2010年12月消费价格较11月上涨1%,快于预期,同比涨幅为8.7%。这使人们更加认为俄罗斯将在接下来几个月加息。
其他大型新兴经济体近几个月也出现快于预期的物价上涨。秘鲁上周出人意料地实施了一次加息。墨西哥报告的通胀率达到4.4%,高于预期。预计泰国将在本周加息。韩国也将于本周公布一揽子应对物价上涨的政策。
JANUARY 3, 2011
Hot Money Roils Growth Currencies
By ALEX FRANGOS
Currencies of emerging-market and commodity-rich countries went on a tear in 2010, but the bull run exposed imbalances building in the global system of foreign exchange that promise to hover over markets in 2011. Journal Report
Read the complete Year-End Review report .
Investors unwilling to accept low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe this past year sent money into countries where growth prospects are better and interest rates more rewarding. As a reflection of that flow, emerging nations had accumulated $1.2 trillion in currency reserves between the financial crisis's peak in early 2009 and the third quarter of 2010, according to the International Monetary Fund.
In October, the Australian dollar, which benefits from Chinese demand for Australian mining resources, breached parity with the greenback for the first time since it became a free-floating currency in 1983. The Taiwan dollar hit an all-time high in late December and closed the year at 29.17 to the dollar.
The Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht rose around 10% against the dollar, to their strongest levels since the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. The South African rand was up 14% versus the dollar. It was a minor currency, however, that was the world's
best-performing: Mining-rich Mongolia's togrog finished the year 15% higher against the dollar.
At the center of the rise of emerging-market and commodity currencies stood China. That is set to continue in 2011.
Other emerging-market economies compete with China on exports and intervene
routinely in currency markets to prevent their currencies from rising quickly against the Chinese yuan, which Beijing controls tightly. And China's demand for raw materials spurs economies in Australia, Brazil, Canada, South Africa and much of Asia.
\"China is gigantically important,\" said Simon Flint, foreign-exchange strategist for Nomura Holdings in Singapore. \"The pivotal relationship in the global economy exists between the U.S. and China. While there's high unemployment in the U.S., there will be tensions
between the U.S. and China. The way these two countries behave will affect the way the rest of the emerging world responds.\" View Full Image
See how several key currencies performed against the dollar.
China altered its currency policy in June 2010 and began to allow gradual appreciation of the yuan for the first time since July 2008. By the end of the year, the yuan had risen 3.6% against the dollar.
Still, China's go-slow appreciation hasn't been enough for its biggest trade rivals, which spent billions buying dollars and selling their currencies in foreign-exchange markets. The aim was to prevent their currencies from rising so quickly that their exports became less competitive against China's.
In so doing, Asian economies outside China, for instance, built up $241 billion in hard currency reserves in 2010 through November. And it still wasn't enough to prevent most emerging-market currencies from returning to precrisis highs against the dollar. While investors in these \"growth\" currencies enjoyed all-time or multidecade highs, government policy makers in emerging economies grew increasingly concerned that the flood of cash will make their currencies uncompetitive and pump up inflation and asset
prices to bubble territory. Many routinely intervened to tamp down further rises and have taken measures to limit the flow of capital.
This situation, coming at a time when developed countries are still struggling with sluggish growth and yawning deficits, sets the stage for a tug of war in which an unpredictable mix of market forces and government policy drive currency markets this year.
In addition to direct intervention in currency markets, governments in economies such as Brazil, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia resorted to more-controversial tactics known as capital controls, or restrictions on the flow of money across borders through means such as investment taxes and required holding periods for foreign investors.
Emerging-market policy makers portrayed their use of capital controls as a response to the Federal Reserve's $600 billion extension of its so-called quantitative-easing program. The monetary stimulus seeks to keep long-term interest rates low and prevent the U.S. economy from re-entering recession. But it also has the potential to overwhelm smaller economies with a flood of investor cash.
Concerned that so-called hot money will disrupt efforts to keep their economies growing on an even keel, several emerging-market nations, such as South Korea, Indonesia, China and Brazil, won language in a Group of 20 communiqué in November that gave diplomatic license to use such tools. In the past, capital controls were seen by developed nations as dangerous manipulations of the free market.
Many think the flow from developed-market currencies into emerging-market ones is a long-term trend that will continue in 2011. Investors swelled fund manager Pictet & Cie.'s Asian local currency bond fund, for instance, from $125 million in November 2009 to $1.6 billion a year later.
More investors are set to follow the trend. Xavier Baraton, global chief investment officer of fixed income for HSBC Asset Management is adding emerging-market local currency bonds to his firm's global high-income bond mutual fund 2011. The fund formerly only invested in dollar-denominated emerging-market bonds.
Skeptics, however, see signs that the flow to emerging markets could reverse in 2011 and catch investors off guard. Inflation, which erodes a currency's value, is building in China, Indonesia and Brazil. Renewed optimism about the U.S. economy and suddenly rising interest rates in the U.S. has the potential to suck money back into the dollar. \"A more robust U.S. economy makes the U.S. a more attractive place to invest,\" says Patrick Perret-Green, currency strategist for Citigroup in Singapore.
Another issue is whether emerging-market and commodity currencies will withstand future global shocks better than in the past. After Lehman Brothers collapsed, these \"risky\" currencies fell significantly against the dollar.
During the euro crisis in the spring of 2010, the flight-to-safety pattern repeated itself as investors continued to see the U.S. currency as a haven. To wit: The Australian dollar fell 12% between April and June; it later bounced back, reaching its all-time high, and ended the year stronger than the greenback at $1.02.
\"If something does go wrong, the Australian dollar is likely to depreciate a lot,\" says Adarsh Sinha, foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
【美国《华尔街日报》1月3日文章】题:热钱搅动“增长”经济体货币
2010年,新兴市场和农矿产品出口国的货币一路狂涨。然而,牛市行情暴露了全球外汇体系正在形成的失衡,它2011年很可能危及市场。
一年来,美国和欧洲不愿接受低利率的投资者们把钱投到了增长前景较好、利率较高的国家。据国际货币基金组织统计,作为这种货币流动的反映,在2009年初至2010年第三季度金融危机的高峰时期,新兴国家累积了1.2万亿美元的货币储备。
去年10月,澳元受益于中国对澳大利亚矿产资源的需求,创下自1983年成为自由兑换货币以来对美元的最高水平。新台币也于12月底升至历来最高水平。
中国处于新兴市场和农矿产品出口国货币升值的风口浪尖。2011年,这个趋势仍将持续。
其他新兴市场经济体在出口方面与中国竞争,因此按惯例对货币市场进行了干预,以防本国货币对人民币升值过快。中国对原材料的需求刺激了澳大利亚、巴西、加拿大、南非和亚洲大多数国家的经济发展。
野村(新加坡)公司外汇战略分析师西蒙·弗林特说:“中国极其重要。全球经济最重要的关系就是美中关系。现在美国失业率很高,而美中关系紧张。这两个国家的行为方式将影响其他新兴国家的反应方式。”
2010年6月,中国修改了外汇政策,开始允许人民币逐步升值。到年底,人民币对美元升值了3.6%。
尽管如此,对于中国的最大贸易竞争对手而言,这种缓慢升值是不够的。它们的目标是防止本国货币升值过快,从而导致本国出口与中国出口相比竞争力下降。
截至2010年11月,除中国之外的亚洲经济体累积了2410亿美元储备。然而这仍然不足以防止大多数新兴市场货币回到危机前对美元的高水平。
虽然这些“增长”经济体货币的投资者从数十年来的高币值中获益,但是新兴经济体的政府决策者日益担忧现金流入将导致本国货币竞争力下降,并输入通货膨胀,进而导致资产价格出现泡沫。很多国家按惯例实行了干预,抑制价格进一步上涨,并采取了限制资本流动的措施。
值此发达国家仍挣扎在增长缓慢和赤字剧增之际,这种局面为拉锯战奠定了基础:其间不可预测的市场力量和政府政策今年将共同作用推动货币市场。
除了直接干预货币市场之外,诸如巴西、泰国、韩国、台湾和印度尼西亚这些经济体的政府则采取了较具争议性的手段,比如资本控制,或通过向外国投资者征收诸如投资税和规定持有期限这样的手段对跨境资本流动加以限制。
由于担心所谓的热钱流入会扰乱本国经济的平稳发展,若干新兴市场国家——如韩国、印度尼西亚、中国和巴西——在去年11月召开的二十国集团峰会发表的联合公报中获得了支持,为这类措施赢得了外交上的许可。过去,资本控制措施被发达国家视为对自由市场的危险操纵。
许多人认为资本从发达国家流入新兴市场是一个长期趋势,2011年它将持续。 可是,怀疑者认为有迹象表明资本流入新兴市场的趋势2011年可能发生逆转,令投资者防不胜防。中国、印度尼西亚和巴西正在形成侵蚀本币价值的通货膨胀。对美国经济的乐观态度恢复以及美国突然加息都有可能将资金重新吸回到美元上。
另一个问题是:新兴市场和农矿产品出口国的货币是否会比过去更具抵抗全球打击的能力。雷曼兄弟公司破产后,这些“高风险”货币对美元的汇率曾大幅下跌。
美林公司外汇战略师阿达什·辛哈说:“如果会出问题,那就是澳元很可能大幅贬值。”
HSBC sees China and America leading global mega-boom
The greatest global boom of all time has barely begun. Over the next forty years, economic growth will quicken yet further as the rising powers of Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America reach their full stride
In a sweeping report entitled \"The World in 2050\HSBC said China at $24.6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars) and the US at $22.3 trillion will together tower over the global economy. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 6:00AM GMT 05 Jan 2011
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Crunching everything from fertility rates to schooling levels and the rule of law, HSBC predicts that the world's economic output will triple again by 2050, provided the major states can avoid conflict - trade wars, or worse - and defeat the Malthusian threat of food and water limits. Growth will rise to 3pc on average, up from 2pc over the last decade. In a sweeping report entitled \"The World in 2050\", the bank said China would snatch the top slot as expected, but only narrowly. China at $24.6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars) and the US at $22.3 trillion will together tower over the global economy in bipolar condominium - or simply the G2 - with India at $8.2 trillion far behind in third slot, and parts of Europe slithering into oblivion.
Turkey will vault past Russia, settling an Ottoman score. Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia will all move into the top 20. Muslim societies may start to reassert an economic clout unseen since the late Caliphate. Yet Brazil
may disappoint again, stalling at 7th place in 2050 as its birthrate slows sharply and bad schools exact their toll.
The surprise is how well the Anglo-Saxon states hold up under HSBC's model, which is based on the theoretical work of Harvard professor Robert Barro. America's high fertility rate (2.1) will allow it too keep adding manpower long after China's workforce has begun to contract in 2020s and as even India starts to age in the 2040s.
An eightfold jump in the per capita income of China and India will keep growth brisk despite demographic headwinds, but they will not come to close to matching US living standards. Americans will be three times richer than the Chinese in 2050. Related Articles
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Britain at $3.6 trillion also fares well, slipping one rank to sixth place but pulling far ahead of Italy and France, and almost displacing Germany as Europe's biggest economy. This is chiefly due to the UK's healthy fertility rate (1.9), although sceptics might question whether a birthrate inflated by the EU's highest share of unmarried teenager mothers is a good foundation for prosperity.
The low fertility of Korea (1.1), Singapore (1.2) Germany (1.3), Poland (1.3), Italy (1.4), Spain (1.4) and Russia (1.4), more or less dooms these countries to aging crises and population decline unless they open the floodgates to immigration.
Japan is already deep into this phase of atrophy, explaining why the country has had such trouble shaking off the effects of the Nikkei bust. Its total population began contracting outright since 2005. It shed a record 120,000 last year, and will shrink 37pc by 2050.
\"Demography matters,\" said Karen Ward, the report's chief author. The \"big losers\" are the smaller states of Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, and Austria, which will mostly drop out of the top 30. \"They may struggle to maintain their influence in global policy forums,\" she said. HSBC works from the assumption that mankind will avoid the energy crunch and overcome the eco-deficit, a term used to describe the world's depletion rate of non-renewable assets. It calls for $46 trillion of investments in alternative forms of energy to break out of the carbon trap, and head off a supply crisis that could derail growth.
Feeding the world may be harder. The UN expects food demand to rise 70pc by 2050, yet the yield growth of crops has slowed to 1.5pc a year from 3.2pc in the 1960s. The number of people living in areas experiencing \"severe water stress\" will double from a third of the world population to two thirds between 1995 and 2025. The water basins irrigating the crops of the North China plain are being exhausted at an alarming rate. HSBC admits that it economic projections are based on a \"rather rosy scenario\". Yet one thing seems clear. As superpowers of world food output, the US and Canada are sitting pretty.
【英国《每日电讯报》1月5日报道】题:汇丰银行认为中国和美国将主导全球大繁荣(记者安布罗斯·埃文斯-普里查德) 有史以来最盛大的全球繁荣刚刚拉开序幕。在今后40年里,随着亚洲、中东和拉美的新兴大国全速前进,经济增长将会进一步加快。
汇丰银行在分析生育率、教育水平和法治状况等数据后预言,只要主要大国能避免冲突(贸易战或者更糟糕的情况),并且消除马尔萨斯指出的缺食少水的威胁,到2050年,全球经济产出将会再增加两倍。过去10年的年均增长率为2%,未来则将增至3%。
该行在一份名为《2050年的世界》的报告中指出,中国将如人们料想的那样雄踞榜首,但优势很小。中国经济规模将为24.6万亿美元,美国为22.3万亿美元——这两个国家将在全球经济中占据优势地位,形成双极共治的局面。印度则将以8.2万亿美元位居第三。一些欧洲国家远远落后。
土耳其将超越俄罗斯。埃及、马来西亚和印度尼西亚都将进入前20名。穆斯林国家可能将具备1924年以来从未有过的影响力。不过,巴西也许又要失望了。由于该国的生育率急剧下降,教育水平又较低,所以2050年将停滞在第七名的位置上。
令人惊讶的是,盎格鲁-撒克逊国家在汇丰银行的预测中表现出色。中国的劳动力将从本世纪20年代开始减少,就连印度都将在40年代开始走向老龄化,而美国凭借较高的生育率,在那之后的很长时间里还会不断增加劳动力。
尽管存在人口方面的不利条件,但中国和印度的人均收入将猛增8倍,所以仍将保持快速增长。不过,这两个国家远远达不到美国的生活水平。时至2050年,美国人的富裕程度仍然将是中国人的3倍。
报告的主要执笔人卡伦·沃德说:“人口因素很重要。”“大输家”是瑞士、荷兰、瑞典、比利时和奥地利等小国。这些国家大多不会进入前30名。她说:“这些国家可能要为保持在全球政策论坛的影响力而大费周折。”
汇丰银行的假设前提是人类能避免能源危机并消除生态赤字。报告呼吁投资46万亿美元开发替代能源,以避免有可能导致增长停滞的供应危机。
养活全世界人口的难度可能会加大。联合国预计,时至2050年,粮食需求将增加70%,而粮食产量的增长率将从20世纪60年代的3.2%放慢到每年1.5%。承受“严重”缺水压力的人口将增加一倍,从全球人口的1/3增至2/3。
汇丰银行承认,其经济预测以“相当乐观的设想”为基础。不过,有一点是明确的。作为全球粮食生产领域的超级大国,美国和加拿大处在极为有利的位置。
Oil prices may threaten global economic recovery, says energy agency
As crude oil prices hit $95 a barrel, it is in a 'danger zone' which may derail recovery, says chief economist at Paris's IEA
Analysts say that with crude oil will average $90 a barrel in 2011, compared with $79.60 in 2011. Photograph: Corbis/BarbaraDavidson
Oil prices are entering the \"danger zone\" and threaten to derail the fragile global economic recovery, according to Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency.
The Paris-based government policy adviser calculates that the oil import costs for the 34 countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) soared by $200bn over the past year to reach $790bn by the end of 2010.
\"Oil prices are entering a dangerous zone for the global economy,\" Birol told the Financial Times. \"The oil import bills are becoming a threat to the economic recovery. This is a wake-up call to the oil consuming countries and to the oil producers.\"
The price of Brent crude hit $95 a barrel for the first time in 27 months on Monday. Although oil prices have fallen recently, analyst Sanford Bernstein is predicting that crude oil will average $90 a barrel this year, compared with $79.60 in 2010. Roger Read, an analyst at Morgan Keegan & Co, is predicting the oil price will range between $75 and $120 this year. Birol said: \"It is not in the interest of anyone to see such high prices. Oil exporters need clients with healthy economies but these high prices will sooner or later make the economies sick, which would mean the need
for importing oil will be less.\" Birol believes that in the short term oil producers should increase production to bring down prices. Opec officials recently said that they had no plans to change oil quotas. Oil consumption will increase by 1.3m barrels a day, or 1.5%, to a record 88.8m in 2011, according to the IEA. Birol said oil consuming nations also need to play their part and reduce their reliance on oil.
The IEA calculates that the EU import bill rose by $70bn during 2010, equal to the combined budget deficits of Greece and Portugal. The IEA also says the ratio of countries' oil import bills to Gross Domestic Product, a key measure of the cost of oil prices on economies, is approaching levels last seen during the financial crisis in 2008. \"It is a very telling story,\" said Birol. \"2010 rang the first alarm bells and 2011 price levels could bring us to the same financial crisis times we saw in 2008.\"
His warning comes just months after International Monetary Fund officials dismissed suggestions rising oil prices would hamper economic recovery.
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