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ALMOST one year into Donald Trump’s presidency, you have to pinch yourself to make sense of it all. In “Fire and Fury”, Michael Wolff’s gossipy tale of the White House, which did not welcome Mr Trump’s anniversary so much as punch it in the face, the leader of the free world is portrayed as a monstrously selfish toddler-emperor seen by his own staff as unfit for office. America is caught up in a debate about the president’s sanity. Seemingly unable to contain himself, Mr Trump fans the flames by taking to Twitter to crow about his “very stable genius” and, in a threat to North Korea, to boast about the impressive size of his nuclear button.
Trump-watching is compulsive—who hasn’t waited guiltily for the next tweet with horrified anticipation? Given how much rests on the man’s shoulders, and how ill-suited he is to the presidency, the focus on Mr Trump’s character is both reasonable and necessary. But, as a record of his presidency so far, it is also incomplete and a dangerous distraction.
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To see why it is incomplete, consider first that the American economy is in fine fettle, growing by an annualised 3.2% in the third quarter. Blue-collar wage growth is outstripping the rest of the economy. Since Barack Obama left, unemployment has continued to fall and the stockmarket to climb. Mr Trump is lucky—the world economy is enjoying its strongest synchronised upswing since 2010. But he has made his luck by convincing corporate America that he is on its side. For many Americans, especially those disillusioned with Washington, a jeremiad over the imminent threat to all of America from Mr Trump simply does not ring true.
Despite his grenade-throwing campaign, Mr Trump has not carried out his worst threats. As a candidate he spoke about slapping 45% tariffs on all Chinese goods and rewriting or ditching the North American Free-Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico. There may soon be trouble on both those fronts, but not on that original scale. He also branded NATO as obsolete and proposed the mass deportation of 11m illegal immigrants. So far, however, the Western alliance holds and the level of deportations in the 12 months to September 2017 was not strikingly different from earlier years.
In office Mr Trump’s legislative accomplishments have been modest, and mixed. A tax reform that cut rates and simplified some of the rules was also regressive and unfunded. His antipathy to regulation has invigorated animal spirits, but at an unknown cost to the environment and human health. His proposed withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and the fledgling Trans-Pacific Partnership was, in our view, foolish, but hardly beyond the pale of Republican thinking.
His opportunism and lack of principle, while shameful, may yet mean that he is more open to deals than most of his predecessors. Just this week, he combined a harsh plan to deport Salvadoreans who have temporary rights to live and work in America with the suggestion of a broad reform to immigration. He also said that he will be going to Davos, where he will rub shoulders with the globalists.
The danger of the Trump character obsession is that it distracts from deeper changes in America’s system of government. The bureaucracy is so understaffed that it is relying on industry hacks to draft policy. They have shaped deregulation and written clauses into the tax bill that pass costs from shareholders to society. Because Senate Republicans confirmed so few judges in Mr Obama’s last two years, Mr Trump is moving the judiciary dramatically to the right. And non-stop outrage also drowns out Washington’s problem: the power of the swamp and its disconnection from ordinary voters.
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